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Wednesday, July 14, 2010

NYT caught with its pants down

The other way we posted an article claiming the rich were the worst defaulters.  "The data show that while one in 12 mortgages under a million dollars are delinquent, "more than one in seven homeowners with loans in excess of a million dollars are seriously delinquent." Shall I wax on about how the rich care less about their credit ratings than the not-so-rich, or how many of these luxury homes are second homes that the owners don't really need, or how rich folks don't give a hoot about their communities and see these homes purely for their investment value?  Nah, I'd rather do a little math. Here's my problem with the thesis of this article: A little less than 14 percent of the loans outstanding in the U.S. are "jumbo," meaning over $417,000, according to government statistics (FHFA). The number of loans that are over $1m are even less than that. So when we're talking about rates of default, you have to factor in the share of the market that you're looking at and the bottom line numbers. Yes, the rate is higher, but it's a far smaller share of borrowers, and that makes the numbers far more volatile. Just 1.7 percent of all home sales in May were of homes over one million dollars. That just gives you an idea of how small that marketplace is. Yes, we can always find the odd celebrity that squandered away all their millions and defaulted on the loan, but I would take a big step back before I come to the conclusion that the 'rich: are more likely to default on a loan than the "unrich.'" http://www.assetunlimitedfinancial.com/

Best regards
Martin Crawford

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